This past August, I celebrated a major milestone - 10 years in the publishing business. Over the last decade, I've had the opportunity to participate in, and in some cases, even anticipate major technology changes. First with client/server, then with the Internet and Java, and now with Web services.

What I've noticed is that technology runs in stages, and the publishing surrounding technology runs that way as well. Gartner has a chart they call the "Hype Curve," which describes the adoption of technology over time. There's a correlating cycle for publishing, which for lack of a better name I'll call the Rhody Publishing Life Cycle (hey, I noticed it, why shouldn't I name it?).

The cycle starts with the release of some new technology. At this point in time, little is known about the technology, there are only a few experts at it, and those folks are busy up to their eyeballs doing projects, training people, and generally reaping the benefits of being first on board. This is the "Trial Stage," where new technologies get tested. Most magazine publishers won't touch a magazine at this stage, for fear of losing all the startup and branding costs if the technology never makes it. So typically the technology becomes a guest section of another magazine, while the wait for adoption occurs.

The next stage is what I call the "Stealth Stage." Companies begin to adopt the technology, at least on a trial basis. But no one says anything about it. Publishers sacrifice small animals in an attempt to lure a company into discussing it enough for a case study. Most companies demur, either from fear of affecting the stock price by announcing they're using something that isn't older than dirt, or because they view the technology as a competitive advantage and want to keep that edge as long as possible. I hate this stage.

The next stage I call the "Widespread Panic Stage." Everybody's doing it, everybody wants to talk about it, little startups are everywhere, and a publisher has to take the phone off the hook, disconnect the computers, and try to refrain from shooting friends who say "I've got this friend who just started such and such - maybe you could do an article on it." This is the glory time for a magazine. You're done running "Hello World" articles and can discuss topics in depth, with detailed information for the hard-core programmer, and high-level concepts for the enterprise architect or CIO. If you're lucky, this stage lasts a long time.

But like everything in this world, there is a time, and a place. After that time, we get to the final stage, the long, agonizing descent into oblivion that I like to call the "Dustbin Stage." Some technologies fade quickly, others linger in the dustbin stage for decades - too vital to replace (or too costly), but nothing new ever happens. All right, perhaps Objective Cobol interests someone, but you get the idea.

For Web services, we're somewhere between Stealth and Widespread Panic (sounds like a double bill at some local gin joint). Case studies are rare, but we are starting to see them; in fact there are two in this month's issue. So sit back, relax, and get ready for full on Widespread Panic. Coming soon to a computer near you.

Author Bio
Sean Rhody is the editor-in-chief of Web Services Journal and managing editor of WebLogic Developer's Journal. He is a respected industry expert and a consultant with a leading consulting services company. Sean@sys-con.com