Welcome to the first "official," full-length issue of .NET Developer's Journal. This month's issue features a migration theme. In some cases, this refers to the migration from COM to .NET. In other cases, it might mean migration from completely non-Microsoft platforms, such as Java. Regardless of from which platforms people are migrating to .NET, there seem to be a few different views currently circulating in the industry about the pace at which this overall migration process is proceeding. At one end of the spectrum, of course, you have those who say that the whole world is on fire with .NET and that complete market dominance is virtually guaranteed by this time next year. At the other extreme, you have those who claim that .NET is shaping up into a complete disaster for Redmond. Personally, I believe that the truth lies somewhere between these two extremes.

As evidence that .NET is catching on at a faster-than-expected pace, advocates of the overly optimistic position tend to cite mainly anecdotal evidence. For example, the fact that a few big-name companies have built .NET-based solutions that are saving them lots of money. Similarly, the fact that some elements of .NET are now available on exactly two other operating systems - FreeBSD and Linux - is supposed to mean that .NET is in some way shaping up as a platform-independent alternative to Java.

Meanwhile, the fact that the numbers of Java developers and technologies both continue to grow rapidly serves as a central argument for those who would say that the .NET revolution has failed completely. After all, says this group, even many of Microsoft's oldest and most dedicated developers - the Visual Basic programmers - have refused to simply "go along with the program" when asked to change their entire programming approach to match the new requirements of VB.NET. These resistant VB6 developers - the ".NOT" movement, as they have come to be known - are perhaps the best examples of the Great .NET Migration stalling dead in its tracks.

While I believe it is true that the pace of developer migration to .NET has not yet become all that it could be, I also believe that there is still considerable reason for optimism going forward. For example, within just a few years, the number of .NET developers and organizations using .NET is predicted to be just about equal to that of Java. Not bad for a platform that is entering the race four to six years (depending upon whether you count from .NET's initial beta in 2000 or its final release in 2002) after its competitor!

Furthermore, I think we have to remember to take the cyclical nature of the economy into account here. Simply put: things are bad now. However, they won't stay bad forever. Companies that are too afraid to begin the kind of R&D now that would be required for a migration to .NET may well be among the first to jump on the bandwagon as soon as economic conditions improve.

Indeed, poor economic conditions often prove the greatest stimulus for bold new uses of technology. I was recently reminded of this myself when I stumbled across the RoboNerd Web site (www.robonerd.com). The poor economy forced these book authors' publisher into bankruptcy, so what did they do? They built a Web site that turns lemons into lemonade by allowing technology authors to publish direct to the developer market and keep an even greater share of the spoils for themselves. Just think how many more cost savings like this will become possible as organizations become more and more willing to interconnect their essential business processes with one another via .NET and XML Web services!

The final reason for optimism that I would cite should probably be the most obvious to us all - the fact that the .NET platform is just plain brilliant technology. What other platform allows you to choose the language that you want to use - so the VB developer who is fresh out of college feels just as comfortable as the COBOL guru who has been in the business for 40 years? What other platform allows you to always use exactly the same tools and skills to create an application - regardless of whether it is for the desktop, for the Web, or for a handheld device? To my mind, there are no alternatives - .NET is clearly the winner in the Great Platform Race of the early 21st century!

So, what do you think? Are people migrating to the .NET platform faster, slower, or just about at the pace you would expect, considering that Microsoft has "bet the company" on this initiative? Let me know your thoughts at derek@sys-con.com!

Author Bio
Derek Ferguson is editor-in-chief of .NET Developer's Journal and author of the book Mobile .NET (Apress). He is also chief technology evangelist for Expand Beyond Corporation (www.xb.com), a worldwide leader in mobile software for enterprise management. derek@sys-con.com